Nuggets Offseason Preview

The Nuggets face crucial decisions this offseason with multiple paths forward after a disappointing follow-up to their championship season. Josh Kroenke's emphasis on internal development signals one approach, but trade possibilities and free agent signings offer alternative strategies to address the team's glaring bench weaknesses.

• Front office restructuring remains unresolved with Ben Tenzer likely to become GM, possibly with another executive above him
• David Adelman's coaching hire represents the first step in the internal development strategy
• Young players like Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, and Julian Strawther need growth to contribute meaningfully
• The Nuggets have zero draft picks and limited tradeable future assets (only a 2031 first-round pick)
• Free agency options are limited by second apron constraints to minimum contracts and the taxpayer exception
• Trading core players is challenging due to their large contracts, though breaking MPJ's deal into multiple rotation pieces is possible
• Potential trade targets include Goga Bitadze (Orlando), Patrick Williams/Kevin Huerter/Ayo Dosunmu (Chicago), or Grant Williams/Josh Green/Josh Okogie (Charlotte)
• Bruce Brown reunion appears likely using the taxpayer exception
• Most realistic scenario involves keeping the core together while adding veteran minimum players to strengthen the bench

Awesome resources for the Nuggets offseason:
Jake Coyne's incredible document

Game Theory with Sam Vecenie

Chapters

• 0:00 Welcome to the Nuggets Offseason Preview
• 2:35 Leadership Changes and Internal Development
• 6:44 Nuggets' Limited Draft and Trade Options
• 11:50 Free Agency Possibilities and Constraints
• 16:20 Three Potential Trade Scenarios
• 22:50 Most Likely Offseason Moves

Transcript

Brian: 0:04

Al right, everyone, welcome back to Fandom From Afar. It is the offseason and I love the offseason. It's fun to think of all the possibilities for your team to either sign a big free agent or make a big trade. There's draft picks. It's kind of fun to think of all the possibilities, just of how your team can improve and give you that hope for the upcoming season. So I think it's going to be fun.

Brian: 0:31

We're going to do an off-season preview for the Nuggets today and there's a lot of possibilities. Some may be more realistic than others, but I thought we'd kind of dive in and review some of the off-season previews that I've seen from actual journalists and see what ideas they have and kind of what my preferences are of what the Nuggets do. So I think, before we dive into all that, the Nuggets still need a general manager. So any of these possibilities, if they were to happen usually it happens because a team has a general manager to accomplish those. So hopefully the Nuggets get one soon. From all the reporting it seems like they're going to promote Ben Tenzer, who's been with the organization for a little while. He was the acting general manager once they fired Calvin Booth and apparently he's a really smart kind of cap guy, but he's never been like an official general manager before, so it will be interesting to see how he handles trades and free agent signings and all that stuff. And it may be more so that he's getting hired because Josh Kroenke is the one that's actually involved or sorry, not involved but in charge and we'll go over that a little bit more later. But I think the holdup, from what I've heard, uh, both on DNVR and, um, just other reporters is that it's not so much. The decision is whether they're going to hire Ben Tenzer or somebody else. It seems like maybe they're going to decide whether Ben Tenzer, as the general manager, will be kind of like the top of the organization, right under Josh Kroenke, or if they're going to hire someone else to be like a president of basketball operations, um, to be right above Ben Tenzer and in between him and Josh Kroenke. So I hope they do it soon. Um, I want them to start kind of formulating a plan and be ready for this off season. But yeah, we can only wait.

Brian: 2:48

So, speaking of Josh Kroenke, he's had a couple press conferences so far this off season and he seems optimistic, which obviously I love, and he has mentioned internal development quite a bit, which could be good or bad depending on how they approach it. And what does that mean exactly? Well, we've seen the beginning already. They've internally hired David Adaman to be the next head coach, which, as I spoke about last time, I actually love. He showed promise just in the short time that he was the head coach last season and, truthfully, the fact that he got rid of quite a few of the assistant coaches that were also on Michael Malone's staff I was encouraged by. I think a change is needed, and even though David Adelman was on the staff, I think he realizes that a change within the coaching staff is needed as well, and so I'm kind of excited to see how he shapes up his staff, and we'll have to see if he gets kind of like the young geniuses or if he gets former players or if he gets old, veteran coaches that have been around and seen everything. I'm actually pretty fascinated to see kind of how he shapes his staff, and obviously I mentioned the GM. I think that's going to be internal development as well, and then Josh Kroenke has mentioned internal development from the players as well. So obviously that can mean the young guys, starting with Christian Brown, peyton Watson, julian Strother, but also Deron Holmes and Jalen Pickett, like guys that either were hurt and didn't get a lot of playing time, were in Michael Malone's doghouse. They didn't get a lot of playing time or they really need to develop to prove that they can belong in the NBA. And so the young guys if they are not involved in trades this offseason, there's a lot of room to develop, and if that's the Nuggets' only plan, then I'm going to be pretty disappointed in that. There's still some veterans that could see some development as well.

Brian: 5:08

Obviously, mpj been around a while. We kind of know what he is, but he's always had Michael Malone, and so you never know, a new system, a new coach could unlock him and he could level up and be even more of an asset on offense and you never know on defense as well. And the big one obviously is always going to be Jamal Murray. He has talent. It's whether he wants to put in the effort, and you never know, maybe David Adelman will hold him more accountable than Michael Malone did, maybe Josh Kroenke will hold him more accountable than in the past and maybe they will say that Jamal needs to come into the season in shape and maybe he needs to do something different to try and avoid some of these nagging injuries and carry more of the load during the regular season. So that could definitely be internal development. And so pretty much throughout Josh Kroenke's press conferences you get the feeling that he is going to be more involved and we're going to have to wait and see whether that's a good or a bad thing, and I do like that. He admits that something's got to change. But if, whether that's a good or a bad thing and I do like that he admits that there something's got to change, but if we're just hoping that the players we already have are going to get better, I don't necessarily think that's the best plan moving forward. So, other than way, other than internal development, what are other ways the Nuggets can improve?

Brian: 6:44

Well, normally there's the draft, but the Nuggets have zero draft picks. And not only do we have zero draft picks this year, we really don't have any draft picks for the foreseeable future that we can trade to get players or more draft picks or anything like that. We have one in 2031 that we're allowed to trade and that could have some value, because a lot of teams could look at that and be like well, jokic will be 35 by then. What will the Nuggets look like? And so it does have some value. But, as we discussed in the past, calvin Booth's really pattern of obtaining players was just to throw a ton of draft picks at the trade to try and make it happen, and it really seems like we just really depleted all of our draft pick war chest to get players that didn't turn out to do too much for us so hindsight's 20-20, but that did not work out in our favor. There's possibilities that we could make a trade and get a draft pick this year. There's always the option of buying a second round pick. A lot of teams will just sell them for a couple million. I'm not sure how willing the Cronkies would be willing to do that or if there's a player that could help the nuggets, um, that would even make that worthwhile. So the draft may be pretty low key for the nuggets this year, um, and that's okay.

Brian: 8:16

There's obviously other avenues to improve, including free agency. Now, free agency should be a little bit more active for the Nuggets, although they are very close to that dreaded second apron which is scaring teams to death, basically. And so the Nuggets cannot sign big name free agents or really add much salary. So it's going to be a lot of minimum guys. And they also have the taxpayer exception, which, if you want to kind of get an idea of what level player that is, our last two exceptions that we've used would be guys like Reggie Jackson or Dario Saric, and so obviously Reggie had his moments, but we eventually had to trade him away and throw in three second round picks just to get the Hornets to take him. And then Dario really was just stuck on the bench because he had such a disastrous five games at the beginning of the season and just kind of showed that he's no longer an NBA player. So minimum guys, it is for the free agents. Now there are some interesting names that we'll go over later. I think that could really help the Nuggets and I don't know if that's necessarily a good thing. It just kind of shows you how how much a lack of depth on our bench is a problem. So we'll go over some possibilities later.

Brian: 9:47

But the third way the Nuggets can improve is by trades, and trades are obviously really fun to think about. They've built tools out there where you can build the trades and see if they work as far as salaries go, most of the time when you see a fake trade on the internet it is totally unrealistic. It's usually like hey, my favorite team will give you a bunch of garbage and you give us a superstar. But I think there are some resources out there that they've made up some realistic fake trades and I'm going to go over some of my favorites. But trades are going to be tough. Like I said, the Nuggets they haveal Murray, michael Porter, jr. They probably should be on much lesser contracts and so it's going to be hard to get any sort of value when trying to trade those guys to another team as well, most likely we would be having to take back some other team's bad salary, and so that's going to be interesting. The young guys with lower salaries don't really have value because they have not been developed, so it's really kind of tough. And then to add injury, to insult injuries. A lot of our guys, either high paid or our young guys, have had injuries, which decreases their value as well. So if it's Ben Tenzer or whoever the new GM is, they are in for a difficult time trying to make a trade happen. So my hopes for the offseason.

Brian: 11:39

I'm going to kind of go over some scenarios I mentioned, there are some great resources out there. Scenarios I mentioned there are some great resources out there. I'm going to try and include these in the show notes for this episode just because I really do think they're valuable to see what's realistic from someone that really spent time and kind of dug into what a realistic possibility is. And so those resources that I'm kind of basing these scenarios on are from Jake Coyne. He's known as Statsquatch.

Brian: 12:07

On Twitter he puts out one of my favorite documents of the year. He really spends a lot of time creating just an amazing document. If you really want to get nerdy about the Nuggets offseason, this is the go-to document, and I'll try and include a link, but it's it's just every detail you could ever look for about the nuggets and what's possible for the off season. So Jake Coyne is the man. This document is amazing. Uh, another link I'm going to put in is a really cool off season preview that Sam Vecini did on his podcast called game theory.

Brian: 12:44

They are not Nuggets fans, they're not associated with the Nuggets in any way, and so I think it's great to get an outside perspective on maybe what the value is for some of the players and what other teams might be looking for as far as trades or anything like that. And so it's a short 30-minute episode and I thought they did a great job of kind of breaking down where the nuggets are at and then even threw in a trade that will go over here in a little bit. That I think could help the nuggets. So obviously, dmvr always has great coverage as well, but I really wanted to highlight those two resources as just an idea of where these scenarios are coming from. I did not want to take credit for them. These guys spent a lot of work creating those documents and those episodes so I wanted to make sure to give them credit.

Brian: 13:34

So, as we look at the Nuggets offseason, there's different groups of fans that kind of have different hopes and dreams for what's going to happen. There's the group that wants to just trade everyone. We need to just trade anyone not named Nikola Jokic and almost do a just restart, refresh everything, because they viewed last year as such a disaster. There's another group that just says we just need to trade MPJ or Jamal and just kind of give a soft reset. We just need to use resources like one of our two best players to give us a little bit more depth and break their big contracts up into little ones. And then there is the third group that thinks the Nuggets are close. We took the Thunder to seven games is the third group that thinks the Nuggets are close. We took the Thunder to seven games and all we need to do is just sign a few veteran guys to really fill out the bench, to take the place of the guys that really couldn't play this past year for us and that will just give us that little extra depth. I have to say I lean toward either the second or the third group. I love MPJ and I love Jamal because they brought us a championship, but I don't think I would be heartbroken if we were able to trade one of them for multiple players. And if the Nuggets decide to go with the third option and just sign some veterans to fill out the bench, I don't think I would be upset about that either.

Brian: 15:06

I think it really was a disaster bench last year. Deandre Jordan had moments, but he's probably passed where we need him to be to really provide backup center minutes, as we mentioned. Sarich didn't provide anything. Vlatko was hurt or just stuck on the bench all season. Unfortunately. Deron Holmes, our first round pick, was hurt all year Tyson Hunter or Hunter Tyson. He doesn't seem to be quite good enough to get minutes in the NBA, and so we just had so many players that just didn't provide anything. And if you just fill those in with some veterans that could provide just nights off during the regular season or a key moment in the playoffs, it could go a long way, and so I'm kind of in between options two and three.

Brian: 16:03

I'd be very interested to see what we could get for MPJ or for Jamal, but most likely it's going to be just signing some veterans. So what are some scenarios from those resources that I really like and I think are realistic? Obviously, in a dream world, I would love to get Kevin Durant, I would love to get Giannis, but that's never going to happen. So let's look at some trades that I think could possibly happen and really help the Nuggets. So the first one is from Jake Coyne's document, and it is trade Julian Strother, zeke Nagy and a swap of our 2030 first round pick to Orlando for Goga Batase. Now, goga Batase is not a huge name, but he is a solid, solid, big man and I think would be a perfect backup center for the Nuggets. Not only could he play backup center to give Jokic a rest, but I also think it could work in big lineups where we need him just to play a little bit of power forward to give Aaron Gordon a rest, and so I really like this trade. It would not be my first choice to give up on Julian Strother, but you have to give up something to get something, and so with Julian Strother and Peyton Watson, my thought is there is a chance that they develop into really good players, but there's also a chance that they don't. And so if we need to use Julian to get off of Zeke's contract and get a valuable backup big man, I like that, and so Jake also included that we could sign Luke Kennard for that exception and then signed DeLon Wright for a minimum, and so this would give us a great backup big man. Luke Kennard would provide some shooting and DeLon Wright would provide a nice veteran guard who can handle the ball. When we play those veteran teams with all the athletes like Minnesota OKC, we need ball handling, and Jamal Murray has proven that sometimes he needs someone to take the load off of him when he's under that pressure. So that first trade I really like giving up Strother but getting rid of Zeke and getting a valuable backup big man, that would check a lot of boxes for me.

Brian: 18:35

The second trade that was also on Jake's document is a big one. This would be trading MPJ Zeke and that 2031 first round pick to the Chicago Bulls for Patrick Williams, kevin Herter and Io DeSumo. Now obviously giving up MPJ is going to hurt. He's been awesome for the Nuggets. He has not complained about taking a backseat to Jokic and Jamal. He's one of the best shooters in the league. But he's overpaid. He's had injury issues and if we need to include him and that first round pick to get off of Zeke's contract and to break up MPJ into multiple contracts, I'm willing to do that. Now this trade also is what I mentioned earlier. We are taking back Chicago's worst contract and what is considered one of the worst contracts in the entire NBA in Patrick Williams.

Brian: 19:41

Patrick Williams was a high draft pick. He was supposed to be one of those prototypical 3 and D guys just the 6'8", 6'9" long defender that can shoot and he never turned into that and he got paid a hefty contract that goes on for another four years. So the Nuggets would be taking on that In any situation where we're taking on someone's problem. There's always the hope that just a change of scenery or playing with Jokic can turn things around and it ends up looking like a great deal. Exhibit A Aaron Gordon. I know a lot of Magic fans that were so frustrated with Aaron Gordon and were ready to get rid of him, and the Nuggets did not have to give up a lot to get him and he turned into one of the all-time Nuggets. That led us to a championship and I just love Aaron Gordon so much and so not saying this would happen again.

Brian: 20:37

But I think playing with Jokic could really help a guy like Patrick Williams and the fact that we're getting Kevin Herter for shooting and Io DeSumo for some much needed point of attack defense. He can guard point guard, shooting guard, small forwards. He's a great defender and the document also says that we would still have room to sign Bruce Brown to that exception. And then Mason Plumlee is our backup center, so I kind of love this one. This is, I think, really interesting. One of our best players and our only draft pick to trade. We're taking on bad money, but I think there's a lot of positives in this type of trade that would allow the Nuggets to really go into the season with a deeper bench, with more shooting, with more defense, and I don't know. I kind of love this trade once I saw it. I think it's something that it's going to take some guts to do, but I think it's something that it's going to take some guts to do, but I think it's something that the Nuggets should look into.

Brian: 21:50

And then the third trade that I really like is from that Sam Vecini podcast. Again, he's an outsider just looking at it from a national perspective and he agrees that the Nuggets need to break up one of the big contracts into more, more players, get a deeper bench and just give, give yourself a little bit more options to either fight against injuries, fight against fatigue. You may even be able to trade some of these players in the future for more assets. And so his idea was trade MPJ to the Hornets for Grant Williams, josh Green and Josh Akogi. Now, this may not be the big name players that we would hope to get for MPJ, but I think it similar to the last deal in PJ, but I think it similar to the last deal. It adds depth and it's something that the nuggets really need.

Brian: 22:43

So Grant Williams is a kind of grind, grinded out every night, hardcore guy that is full of energy. Now I will say it seems like his teammates always really get annoyed with him and don't really like him. So that may not be something that we're interested in. But Josh Green, kind of a slasher wing that could provide some defense and shooting. And Josh Akogi, same thing. He'll play hard, he'll provide some defense, but he's a professional basketball player and so turning MPJ into three useful players I think would be good. And then in this scenario they they could also sign Luke Kennard to the exception and kind of get some shooting to come off the bench as well.

Brian: 23:20

So really, like those three example trades, I think they each provide something different, but I think it's kind of the right train of thought where the Nuggets need to think about some either small changes or big changes, but add that depth, add more useful players. There's been other rumored trades like Utah has a lot of guys that we could be interested in, like John Collins and Colin Sexton. Toronto has a bunch of guys that we could really use and then, of course, orlando. One of my dream scenarios would be some sort of Jamal Murray trade where we get Jalen Suggs and then a couple of their wings, slash big men and and I think it could really help out both teams I would be happy for my magic fans to get a point guard that can score for the magic, and then I would love the depth that Orlando could give to the Nuggets. I seriously doubt we're trading Jamal, but that's just kind of a dream scenario. And then there's even been rumors where we would figure out something to trade to the Pelicans to get Zion Williamson.

Brian: 24:30

So there's all sorts of possibilities out there. Obviously, most of it is just for fun, most likely not going to happen, but it is fun to think about, and so I think what is most likely is we will sign Bruce Brown to that exception. Bruce has been pretty open about how much he loved his time in Denver and he retweeted when David Adelman got the head coaching job. He attended Nuggets playoff games when he was already eliminated and they were playing still. I really think Bruce wants to come back to Denver and the Nuggets fans I think kind of have put him up on a pedestal just because he was such a fun player and did so well for us during the championship run. But I think he could provide some much-needed depth and ball handling.

Brian: 25:21

So I would welcome Bruce back with open arms. As much as I want them to do it, I think that they will keep the core together. I'm guessing we will have the same starting five going into next year, and then I think they're going to sign some minimum guys. So, while it's not my top choice, I think the most likely scenario could provide some optimism going into next year. All I know is it's going to be interesting. There's so many possibilities and the rumors are fun. Draft night is so much fun, even if the Nuggets don't have a pick, and I just love it all. I think it's going to be so fun to break down, and obviously we will break it down when everything happens, and so I appreciate you guys listening today for this offseason preview and we will be back soon.